The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianity by Philip Jenkins, Oxford University Press 2002
In a careful and well documented analysis of the present and the possible future, Philip Jenkins challenges the view (based on the work of Samuel P Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order) that Islam will be the world's largest religion by 2020 or so, and asserts that by 2050 there should still be about three Christians for every two Muslims.
Professor Jenkins discusses the difficulties of population projections (having regard to ‘the effects of AIDS and civil violence’, and so on) and the even greater difficulties in projecting religious affiliation—particularly within the broad term ‘Christian’ (the rapidly changing scene for the Roman Catholic and Protestant churches, the increasing number of independent congregations and the reliability of data). Nevertheless, for instance, by 2050 he estimates that Africans and Latin Americans combined will make up 66% of the Roman Catholic church. The impact and implications of the growth of Christianity and in particular Pentecostal expansion are considered in detail and issues associated with gender and sexuality, especially for the Roman Catholic church of the next 50 years, are opened up.
While the main focus of the book is on the nature, location and implications of the growing number of Christians worldwide (with some observations about places of decline), the growth of the major non-Christian faiths is also discussed. Most of the non-Christian content relates to Islam and there is some less extensive but penetrating discussion concerning Judaism, Hinduism, and Buddhism.
Although this book is now somewhat dated I found it a very readable and challenging contribution to my thinking about global issues.